Yasui Food (603345): First-mover advantage, Molded cost, Lead cost, Casting barriers
Absolute leader in quick-frozen foods, the demand boom balances the company’s lead in domestic quick-frozen products. The main products include quick-frozen products, quick-frozen noodle products and a few quick-frozen products.
In the history of review, the internal private and management are excellent, and the forward-looking layout is mainly based on catering circulation channels.
Considering the high load of the industry’s prosperity, the company relies on the market in the base areas of East China and actively expands production to improve its national layout.
The frozen goods industry has long slopes, thick snow, high growth, and determined the layout before integration. 1) Looking for a driver: The tidal wave of convenience in eating and drinking under urbanization has catalyzed the demand for ready-to-eat quick-frozen foods.
At the same time, the catering channel has opened up the industry’s growth space from the application side, and compared with Japan / long-term catering channels, which account for 60/30% respectively, which can double in the long run.
In practice, the increase in the number of outbound meals for passenger flow and the increase in the flow of goods to restaurants for reliance on central kitchens have gradually increased the importance of catering channels.
At the same time, the top catering application scenarios of frozen goods-hot pot, snacks, group meals and chain catering, have accelerated the demand for frozen goods.
In addition, the maturity of cold-chain technology will drive the rise of the Midwest market. In the future, it will enter the integration under the lead and cost impact.
2) Demolition and growth: The overall space is 100 billion yuan and the layout is scattered (CR5 is below 30%), and different life cycles at the track are divided.
The benchmark US-Japan space can be seen at 200 billion and the future growth rate is about 10%.
From the perspective of comparison, Anjing advantage, multi-dimensional cast the strongest reaper 1) first-mover advantage: scale first, 40/50 of the built / under construction capacity replacement, the first to achieve a strong scale effect to master the pricing initiative.
The market is ahead, the first coastal quick-frozen food company to build a large-scale inland factory, and the market development and consumer minds take the lead.
The capital is first, with 1.2 billion cash in hand and strong upstream and downstream capital occupations. It has significant advantages in industries with poor profitability and high investment demand.
The time is ahead, and the capacity building is 6-8 years ahead of its rivals.
The product is ahead, with over 300 products, R & D investment of 70 million, and more market feedback, and the ability to grab explosive products is stronger.
Channels first, the first to operate the catering channel, and provide personal service to dealers, the channel potential is high / profitable / sticky.
2) Leading cost: scale effect, depending on the scale and upstream layout, bargaining for raw materials is strong, overlapping per capita income is high, and costs are effectively reduced.
Efficient operation and implementation of the successful business model of “large single product + main circulation catering channels + real estate sales”, large single products improve the industrialization of production and consolidate marketing efficiency, and the circulation catering mainly avoids high cost expenditures.Annually save 80-90 million transportation costs.
武汉夜生活网 Growth path: catering channels + nationalization + industry integration three-dimensional expansion 1) Force catering: create the concept of a central kitchen, independently produce quick-frozen alternative products and Mr. Frozen, rely on mature catering operation experience to continue to explore catering customers, catering space can be seen 3 Times.
2) Nationwide distribution: Sichuan / Henan / Hubei construction plants radiate inland, weaving nets in accordance with local conditions, weaving nets on the basis of real estate sales, researching / intensive farming in the production areas.
3) Consolidate the industry: Strengthen the company’s cost advantage. Under the impact of rising pork prices, rely on “high quality, medium and high prices” to squeeze out small and medium brands, and the market share can be 10-20%.
Investment advice and profit forecast are firmly optimistic about long-term growth value.
The EPS for 19-21 is forecast to be 1.
16. Corresponding to the current price of 41/34 / 27PE, considering the high certainty of growth, it is given 40 times PE for 20 years, with a target price of 68 yuan. It is covered for the first time and given a “buy rating”.
Risks prompt food safety issues, production capacity is less than expected, cost prices fluctuate sharply, and market competition intensifies