Yangma cares before the holiday: “Special Spicy Noodle” shrinks sequel to 240.5 billion, the price remains unchanged
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Caring before the young mother’s day!
The sequel of “Special Spicy Hot Noodle” shrinks to 240.5 billion, and the price remains the same!
Waiting for the rate cut?
Sun Lulu continued the liquidity operation until the last day before the festival.
On January 23, the targeted intermediary lending facility (TMLF) operation was gradually implemented at USD 240.5 billion, and the operation was reduced to maintain debt3.
On the same day, 257.5 billion TMLF expired, and a total of 17 billion net liquidity was withdrawn.
The forthcoming sequel of “special hot and spicy powder” exceeds market expectations. TMLF is a monetary policy tool gradually established at the end of 2018. Its operation method is similar to MLF, but compared with earlier MLF interest rates, the deadline is extended, and applications are gradually guided.Banks increased financing support for small and micro enterprises.
However, because TMLF operates in a similar way to MLF, TMLF has temporarily suspended new operations once a quarter, but suspending new works does not mean that the termination of stock will not continue.
Because the TMLF operation method is expired and can be renewed twice according to the needs of financial institutions, the actual use period can reach three years.
Too many analysts believe that the TMLF due later will continue to continue.
Why is the small-scale sequel terminated on January 23 with 257.5 billion TMLF, but the size of the sequel is only 240.5 billion yuan.
For why the small sequel rather than the full sequel?
Zhang Xu, chief fixed income analyst of Everbright Securities, told a Chinese reporter at the securities firm that on January 22 last year, the one-year AAA interbank deposit receipts yielded returns.
13%, with 3.
The 15% TMLF operating interest rate level is basically flat.
On January 22 this year, the one-year AAA interbank certificates of deposit yield has replaced 2.
95%, a decrease of about 18bp compared to the same period last year, so the commercial bank’s interest rate level is still 3.
The demand for 15% of TMLF dropped slightly, so today is a sequel to the drawdown.
However, the shrinking sequel to TMLF does not imply a decline in monetary policy support for small and micro enterprises.
Obviously, at the beginning of the creation of TMLF, it was proposed that “TMLF funds can be used for three years and the operating interest rate is 15 basis points lower than the MLF interest rate.”
Not long ago, the one-year MLF has just “cut interest rates” by 5bp, so when the market competition has expected the release of the sequel TMLF, it will also follow the 5bp down.
Regarding the ongoing interest rate adjustments of this TMLF sequel, Founder Securities (rights) chief economist Color believes that the TMLF tool has gradually “fade out”, and today only terminates the sequel, so no adjustment will not affect future operations.
At the same time, even MLF has been reduced by 5bp, and there is a 10bp spread between TMLF and MLF.
The CITIC Securities fixed income team believes that from the perspective of this TMLF operation, it is a sequel, and does not follow MLF’s interest rate cuts to release a neutral signal, which reflects the prudent attitude of the monetary policy before the Spring Festival after the RRR cut at the beginning of the year.
Waiting patiently for LPR to “cut interest rates” In fact, after TMLF pauses the sequel and gradually “fade out”, it does not make much sense to focus too much on TMLF.
From the perspective of interest rate levels, the latest quoted loan market quoted interest rate (LPR) on January 20 readjusted greatly beyond market expectations. However, a large number of analysts believe that subsequent to the inclusion of the inclusive financial benchmarking assessment and the downgrade of the quasi-interest rate this yearThere is still room. This year LPR will also reduce the room, and the market should remain “patient.”
Ma Jun, member of the Chief Monetary Policy Committee and an expert at the National Institute of Finance of Tsinghua University, said in an interview with the Financial Times that in January it is likely that some banks have already reduced their quotes based on changes in the cost of funds, but have not yet reached the level that will reduce the overall LPR.Threshold.
This involves the calculation rules for the new LPR, which is taken to zero.
The calculation method of rounding to the nearest whole multiple of 05% requires a sufficient number of bank quotes to change in the same direction and accumulate to a certain extent before an adjustment of at least 5 basis points will occur.
In this way, once LPR is adjusted, it will have stronger directionality and guidance.
”The effects of monetary policy reductions, such as RRR cuts, are not reflected in LPR quotes, or it takes time to accumulate and allow more quote banks to make adjustments.
To proceed, analysts should be patient and allow the market price to fully adjust for some time.
“Ma Jun said.
The deputy director of the CITIC Securities Research Institute clearly stated that the ultimate goal of monetary policy in 2020 is also to reduce costs. There are three directions to reduce costs: 1. Reducing the cost of funds through RRR cuts, but the space is not large, and subsequent reductions will be more cautiousMore structural adjustments; 2. Reducing interest rates and directly lowering corporate loan interest rates, but banks need to reduce interest rate spreads; 3, further deepen the reform of interest rate marketization, eliminate the implicit 深圳桑拿网 lower limit of loans, and reduce the interest rate differentials of large enterprisesLater, profit-driven banks were forced to divert more financial resources to small and micro enterprises.
”Under the condition that the effect of lowering the standard is relatively weak and the space is limited, the short-term cost reduction method in the short term is to lower the policy rate by lowering interest rates to guide LPR down.
It is expected that there will be an MLF interest rate cut in February or March this year.
“It was plainly said.
In addition, according to the practice, the inclusive financial assessment of targeted inclusive finance is also expected to be implemented, and 100 billion yuan of liquidity will be released by then.
Everbright Securities’ chief banking analyst Wang Yifeng went bankrupt. In 2020, 重庆耍耍网 Pratt & Whitney ‘s “three gears and two excellences” targeted the release of about 500 billion yuan of funds. After this round of adjustment, about 90% of the major listed banks will reach Pratt & WhitneyFinancial orientation downgrade second gear, enjoy 1.
5% legal rate reduction.