Beijing New Building Materials (000786): Stable price and volume increase, and then improve the quality of operation
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Event: The company disclosed its 2018 annual report: 125 operating income.
65 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.
55%, achieving a net profit of 24.
81 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.
4%, net profit attributable to mother 24.
66 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.
Attributable net profit in lieu of all related litigation costs for US Gypsum Board matters.
21 ppm, an increase of 10 per year.
The company plans to distribute a dividend for every 10 shares4.
6 yuan (including tax), accounting for 32% of net profit attributable to mothers in 2018.
Opinion: Sales volume is in line with expectations, and net profit per square meter hits a new high.
The company’s first-level gypsum board production and sales were 18 respectively.
8.3 billion square meters and 18.
6.9 billion square meters, with an increase of 3 each year.
12% and 2.
64%, sales were basically in line with expectations.
Among them, Q4 single quarter gypsum board sales of about 4.
800 million flats, an increase of 22% in ten years.
We estimate that the average annual level of gross income and gross profit of gypsum board in 2018 are 5 respectively.
85 yuan and 2.
18 yuan, increase by 0 each year.
42 yuan and 0.
06 yuan; 2018 single net profit 1.
33 yuan, up by 0 every year.
04 yuan, of which Q4 was affected by the litigation costs of the US gypsum board, and the net profit of Shanping was 0.
88 yuan; if you deduct the impact of all relevant litigation costs on the US gypsum board matter, the annual net profit will be 1.
46 yuan, up 0 before.
At 1 yuan, the net profit of a single square meter reached a new high and the “principle and profit” were put in place, and the operating quality was significantly improved.
In 2018, the company proposed and implemented the “price-cost-profit” business model to control accounts receivable and strengthen inventory management; Taishan Gypsum cleaned up idle inventory, improved the utilization rate of turnover materials, and adjusted its procurement strategy to build an online procurement platform.Provide sufficient guarantee for the timely supply of raw materials.
The company’s accounts receivable turnover rate and inventory turnover rate in 2018 reached 6, respectively.
4 and 142 times, increasing by 0 each year.
8 and 33.
8 times, reaching the best level in history.
Capacity expansion and pricing power continued to strengthen.
The company plans to produce 3 billion square meters of gypsum board in the next few years. By the end of 2018, the company’s gypsum board capacity has reached 24.700 million square meters, with a market share of nearly 60%.
Summary of the report, the company announced investment and acquisition of Shandong Wanjia, Supplement 1.
03 billion flats / year of gypsum board equity production capacity to integrate the Yangtze River Delta region market.
We expect that with the company’s capacity expansion and market share increase, its pricing power in the industry will continue to be 四川耍耍网 solid.
Profit forecast and investment advice: The company is a typical undervaluation leader.
The gypsum board industry can achieve substantial growth under the support of renewed demand. The company has consolidated 60% of the market share. The cost advantage has formed a strong competitive barrier, and the company has a low loss rate and good cash flow.
The gypsum board use phase is gradually completed, so the growth rate of demand lags behind the growth rate of the sales area of commercial buildings by about three quarters, and it is in the bottom-seeking phase in 18 years.
We expect the stable demand to pick up along with the expansion of production capacity, environmental protection and gradual environmental protection. The company’s market share will bring further pricing power, and the company’s gypsum board is expected to increase in both volume and price.
We adjust the company’s profit forecast and expect the company’s net profit attributable to its mothers to be 27 in 2019-2021.
3.2 billion, 31.
7.2 billion and 36.
960,000 yuan, the closing price on March 20 corresponding to PE were 11 times.
7 times and 8.
3 times, maintaining the level of “prudent increase”.
Risk Warning: Real Estate Investment Exceeds Expectations, US Gypsum Board Litigation Deteriorates