Kang Hong Pharmaceutical (002773) Company Research: Performance is slightly lower than expected
Kanghong Pharmaceutical released a performance forecast, which is expected to return to net profit in 20196.
64 ppm, 0% increase over ten years?
93%; non-net profit attributable to mother 6.
89 ppm, an increase of 0 in ten years.
Q4 single quarter net profit attributable to mother 1.
12 ppm, a ten-year increase of -23.
77%; deducted non-net profit1.
85 ppm, a -28-year increase.
Opinion: The performance is slightly lower than expected, which may be affected by the expected price cuts of medical insurance and the increase in R & D and sales expenses.
Q4 performance may be affected by the expected price cuts for medical insurance.
According to the median forecast, the net profit attributable to mothers in 2019 is about 7.
30 ppm, a ten-year increase4.
96%; deducted non-net profit is about 6.
60 ppm, a ten-year increase4.
85%; Q4 net profit attributable to parent is approximately 1.
7.8 billion, down 5 every year.
32%; non-net profit attributable to the parent in Q41.
5.6 billion, a decrease of 11 per year.
The initial performance is affected by Q4. We believe that the patient has expected that Compaq will reduce the price of medical insurance in the future, so we hope to wait for the new price to be executed before injecting.breakthrough.
The company’s R & D pipeline is advancing, and we believe that this year’s R & D investment may hinder.
According to the wind database, KH903 has begun phase II clinical recruitment on December 10, 2019, and KH906 eye drops have completed phase I clinical on November 19, 2019.
In addition, the company has multiple preclinical product layouts.
With Abexip’s new health insurance, we believe the company’s selling expenses may rise.
In the medical insurance negotiations at the end of 2019, Abexip has entered new medical insurance. In order to cope with the conflict, the company needs to strengthen academic promotion and strengthen the education of doctors and patients, which may lead to rising sales costs.
Looking forward to 2020, two new indications will be added to medical insurance. The outcome of medical insurance negotiations is more optimistic, and Compaq is expected to continue to increase its volume.
Compaqip adds DME and CNV as two alternative indications in the Air Force’s medical insurance connection. The total patient population is nearly 10 million, which further expands the scope of Compaqip’s medical insurance and promotes volume.
In addition, the medical insurance reimbursement quota has been increased, and the three drugs can be combined for calculation, which is conducive to an increase in the rate of consultations, and patients are more likely to choose the more economical Compaqip, which is expected to compete for share in the stock market.
Profit forecast and estimation.
We believe that the company Compaqap expects to accelerate the volume with a small price drop in 2020-2021, and chemical and Chinese medicines will continue to provide stable cash flow.
Based on the expected decline in the annual report, we have lowered our profit forecast and expect the net profit attributable to mothers to be 7 in 2019-2021.
4 billion, 8.
5.4 billion, 10.
24 ppm, corresponding to a growth rate of 6.
9%, EPS is 0.
85 yuan, 0.
97 yuan, 1.
17 yuan, corresponding to PE is 46X, 39X, 33X.
Maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk Warning: Compaqip’s sales are less than expected; Compaqip’s risk 西安耍耍网 of clinical failure in the United States; Risk of failure in research and development of other new drugs.