Guochuang High-tech (002377): O2O real estate intermediary model expands against trend and promotes benefits from frontline recovery

Guochuang High-tech (002377): O2O real estate intermediary model expands against trend and promotes benefits from frontline recovery

Acquired Shenzhen Yunfang (Qfangwang) and laid out O2O real estate agency business.

The company acquired Shenzhen Yunfang in 2017. Qfang is a real estate intermediary service provider with an O2O model as its core. It is dominated by “Internet +” and is mainly engaged in new house agency and second-hand house brokerage business.

According to the latest data from Qfang.com, thousands of stores have been set up in 23 cities across the country, with more than 20,000 partners in the brokerage business. It has a leading market share in Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Zhongshan and other regions, and is still in Shanghai.Cities such as Qingdao actively deployed and steadily expanded, and initially formed a nationwide multi-region and multi-city offline business 杭州夜网论坛 system.

QWith the advantages of O2O channels, the new house second-hand housing linkage, independent brokerage and other systems have obtained leading industry advantages: The company has taken advantage of O2O channel advantages, the new house second-hand housing linkage and independent brokerage system to obtain leading advantages over the industry: 1) new housesAgency rates, the commission rate of the brokerage business is higher than the World Bank of the same industry, I love my home, and the new house agency rates for 15-17 are 2 respectively.

33%, 2.

5%, 2%, although replaced but still at a high level, the commission rate of the company’s brokerage in 15 and 16 was 1.

64%, 1.

62% are close to my home I love, but rose to 1 in 17 years.

91%, more than 1 I love my home.

68%.

2) The independent brokerage system stimulates employees’ enthusiasm: Shenzhen Yunfang and the brokerage adopt a cooperation model rather than an employment model, and incentivize brokers by increasing the commission percentage, and the per capita income generation has increased significantly.

Under this incentive policy, it is expected that the per capita monthly income generation scale of Shenzhen Yunfang will continue to increase in 17 and 18 years.

Qfang stores expanded their stores against the trend, and the market share continued to increase. The number of first-line stores accounted for 58%, which is expected to benefit from the first-line recovery: The company has a total of 1073 stores in 2016. After the listing, it will expand in contrarian.There are 1,300 stores, of which first-tier cities account for about 58%. If you consider only second-hand housing companies, the market share in 2017 ranks third, lagging behind Central Plains and Chain Home, but if you add new house business as much as possible, the above buildings rank first.One.

At the same time, after nearly two years of adjustment in the first-tier cities, the transaction volume of second-hand housing has bottomed out. We expect that volume and price will rise in 2019. The company’s combined first-tier ultra-high proportion and contrarian expansion will usher in more than expected sales.
Shareholders increased their confidence significantly, and the focus of lifting the ban will be in October 2020: when the company acquires Q house, the fixed price will be 8.

49 yuan, about 400 million shares accounted for 46.

93% of the ban was lifted on October 23, 2020 at the beginning of the year. The supporting financing part was lifted in November 2018. Until the end of February 2018, it was announced that most of the holdings had been reduced, and there were still small reductions.

In addition, the notice of the company’s shareholders, Guochuang Group, is based on the confidence in the company’s future development prospects and recognition of the company’s value, and promotes the company’s sustainable, stable, healthy development and protection of the company’s shareholders’ rights.Increasing the company’s shares through bidding transactions in the secondary market; On August 11, 2018, the company announced that it had completed an increase of 6.48 million shares at an average price of 7.

43, total cost of 50.13 million yuan.

Investment advice: Shenzhen Yunfang (Qfangwang) acquired by the company is a leading O2O real estate agency, with more than 1,000 stores in 23 cities across the country, of which the proportion of first-tier cities is nearly 60%. Channel advantages and independent broker incentive systems have been used in recent years.Both the agency fee rate and market share have continued to increase, and have become leading enterprises in Shenzhen and the Greater Bay Area.

Benefiting from the recovery of the real estate market in first- and second-tier cities in 19 years, the real estate transaction market realized both volume and price increases, and the cloud warehouse layout in first-tier cities has clearly benefited, and the upgraded big data platform entered operators in 19 years, which will further helpTo guide, transform customers and improve sales efficiency.

Based on the above, we estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent for the years 18-20 will be 3 respectively.

12 billion, 4.

15 billion, 5.

4.4 billion, the corresponding EPS is 0.

34, 0.

45, 0.

59 yuan, the corresponding PE is 20.

34X, 15.

30X, 11.

67X, with reference to the estimation of I love my family, we give the company 22,2019.

4x estimated target, corresponding to target price of 10.

08 yuan, the first coverage, given a “buy” rating.

Risk reminders: Performance promises fall short of expectations, risk of goodwill impairment, risk of falling commission rates, risk of excessive appreciation of assets